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Mariehamn vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
Preview
13:30
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
7/25/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 17
Big match
40%
Mariehamn
model favours
40%28%32%

Mariehamn score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mariehamn40%
×Draw28%
AC Oulu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.25
AC Oulu
1.08

Mariehamn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.24
AC Oulu
0.85

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.32
AC Oulu
1.25

finishing

Mariehamn-0.07on par
AC Oulu-0.05on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
68%
Mariehamn or AC Oulu
72%
Draw or AC Oulu
60%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
18%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
71%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
36%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
13%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
66%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
29%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
56%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.32 · 6 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + AC Oulu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

AC Oulu attack 0.85 + Mariehamn defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mariehamn scores more
40%
level
28%
AC Oulu scores more
32%

Mariehamn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AC Oulu score first in only 19% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Mariehamn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mariehamn
Balanced
AC Oulu
Balanced
49%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy80%
9.2ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.25xG1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MariehamnAC Oulu

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Mariehamn
1
Draws
5
AC Oulu
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 70%
1–22–00–11–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Mariehamn
LLLLL
Oulu
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariehamn vs AC Oulu — Match Preview

Mariehamn face AC Oulu on July 25, 2026 in this Veikkausliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.