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Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana — 1. SNL 2026

Maribor
Maribor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
12/3/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 17Ljudski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Maribor46%
×Draw25%
Olimpija Ljubljana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maribor
1.58
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21

Maribor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 124 away

creates per match

Maribor
2.06
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.49

allows per match

Maribor
0.93
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.10

finishing

Maribor+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maribor ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maribor or draw
71%
Maribor or Olimpija Ljubljana
75%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
54%

Winning margin

Maribor wins by 2+
23%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maribor 1+ goals
79%
Maribor 2+ goals
47%
Maribor 3+ goals
21%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
70%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
34%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maribor (draw refunded)
61%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maribor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maribor attack 2.06 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + Maribor defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maribor scores more
46%
level
25%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
29%

Maribor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Maribor beat Olimpija Ljubljana 3-1 in 1. SNL on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Ljudski vrt in Maribor.