Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mariánské Lázně vs Klatovy — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
FT
1 – 0
Klatovy
Klatovy
8/24/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 3Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Mariánské Lázně49%
×Draw22%
Klatovy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
2.02
Klatovy
1.51

Mariánské Lázně creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Klatovy
1.44

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Klatovy
2.23

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Klatovy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
71%
Mariánské Lázně or Klatovy
78%
Draw or Klatovy
51%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
28%
Klatovy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
87%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
60%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
33%
Klatovy 1+ goals
78%
Klatovy 2+ goals
44%
Klatovy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
63%
Klatovy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
49%
level
22%
Klatovy scores more
29%

Mariánské Lázně at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariánské Lázně 1 – 0 Klatovy

Mariánské Lázně beat Klatovy 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně).