Marconi Stallions 1–2 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Marconi Stallions

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

3/9/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 5Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Marconi Stallions44%

×Draw22%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marconi StallionsExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.62

Marconi Stallions

1.88

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.62

Marconi Stallions creates 16% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

2.16

creates per match

1.96

1.28

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Marconi Stallions

2.16

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.96

allows per match

Marconi Stallions

1.28

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw

66%

Marconi Stallions or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

78%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

56%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+

24%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals

85%

Marconi Stallions 2+ goals

56%

Marconi Stallions 3+ goals

29%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

80%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

48%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)

57%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more

44%

level

22%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

34%

Marconi Stallions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff