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Maranhão vs Brusque — Serie C 2025

Maranhão
Maranhão
Preview
21:30
Brusque
Brusque
8/9/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 16
40%
Maranhão
model favours
40%29%31%

Maranhão sit 15, Brusque 2 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maranhão40%
×Draw29%
Brusque31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.21
Brusque
1.02

Maranhão creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.14
Brusque
1.19

allows per match

Maranhão
0.86
Brusque
1.29

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Brusque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
69%
Maranhão or Brusque
71%
Draw or Brusque
60%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
17%
Brusque wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
70%
Maranhão 2+ goals
34%
Maranhão 3+ goals
12%
Brusque 1+ goals
64%
Brusque 2+ goals
27%
Brusque 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
57%
Brusque (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.14 + Brusque defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brusque attack 1.19 + Maranhão defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maranhão scores more
40%
level
29%
Brusque scores more
31%

Maranhão at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of Brusque’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Brusque’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Maranhão and Brusque have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Maranhão
WLDLD
Brusque
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maranhão host Brusque

August 9, 2026: Maranhão take on Brusque in Serie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.