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Maracena vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
CANC
22:00
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 36Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena34%
×Draw28%
Real Jaén38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.16
Real Jaén
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
62%
Maracena or Real Jaén
72%
Draw or Real Jaén
66%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
14%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
69%
Maracena 2+ goals
32%
Maracena 3+ goals
11%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
71%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
35%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
48%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maracena scores more
34%
level
28%
Real Jaén scores more
38%

Real Jaén at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maracena face Real Jaén (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with Maracena hosting Real Jaén. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Maracena host Real Jaén at Ciudad Deportiva Maracena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.