Manzini Wanderers 2–4 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Manzini Wanderers

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Highlanders

3/5/2022

Premier League · Round 13Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Manzini Wanderers24%

×Draw26%

Highlanders49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manzini WanderersExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.50

Manzini Wanderers

0.97

Highlanders

1.50

Highlanders creates 55% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

1.01

creates per match

1.29

1.71

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers

1.01

Highlanders

1.29

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers

1.71

Highlanders

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw

51%

Manzini Wanderers or Highlanders

74%

Draw or Highlanders

76%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

9%

Highlanders wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

62%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

25%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

7%

Highlanders 1+ goals

78%

Highlanders 2+ goals

44%

Highlanders 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

33%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more

24%

level

26%

Highlanders scores more

49%

Highlanders at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff