Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manzini Sea Birds vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
FT
0 – 0
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
5/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Manzini Sea Birds31%
×Draw28%
Nsingizini Hotspurs41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Sea Birds
1.03
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.23

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

creates per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.39
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.13
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Sea Birds ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manzini Sea Birds or draw
59%
Manzini Sea Birds or Nsingizini Hotspurs
72%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
69%

Winning margin

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
12%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
64%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
28%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
9%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
71%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
35%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
43%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Sea Birds at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.39 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manzini Sea Birds scores more
31%
level
28%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
41%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Sea Birds 0–0 Nsingizini Hotspurs

Manzini Sea Birds and Nsingizini Hotspurs drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.