Manzini Sea Birds 0–0 Moneni Pirates

Manzini Sea Birds

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moneni Pirates

3/5/2023

Premier League · Round 14King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Manzini Sea Birds43%

×Draw27%

Moneni Pirates30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manzini Sea BirdsExpected goals in this matchMoneni Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.08

Manzini Sea Birds

1.37

Moneni Pirates

1.08

Manzini Sea Birds creates 27% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

1.39

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Manzini Sea Birds

1.39

Moneni Pirates

1.04

allows per match

Manzini Sea Birds

1.13

Moneni Pirates

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Sea Birds ↓

Moneni Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Manzini Sea Birds or draw

70%

Manzini Sea Birds or Moneni Pirates

73%

Draw or Moneni Pirates

57%

Winning margin

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+

20%

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals

75%

Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals

40%

Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals

16%

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

66%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

29%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)

59%

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Sea Birds at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.39 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manzini Sea Birds scores more

43%

level

27%

Moneni Pirates scores more

30%

Manzini Sea Birds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff