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Manta FC vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
S. Jaramillo 83'
8/15/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Manta FC52%
×Draw28%
Vargas Torres20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.36
Vargas Torres
0.73

Manta FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.43
Vargas Torres
0.60

allows per match

Manta FC
0.86
Vargas Torres
1.29

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
80%
Manta FC or Vargas Torres
72%
Draw or Vargas Torres
48%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
25%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
74%
Manta FC 2+ goals
39%
Manta FC 3+ goals
16%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
52%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
17%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
72%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manta FC scores more
52%
level
28%
Vargas Torres scores more
20%

Manta FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
S. Jaramillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Manta FC 0–1 Vargas Torres

Vargas Torres beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 15, 2023.

Goals: S. Jaramillo (83').

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.