Manta FC 0–2 Tecnico Universitario: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tecnico Universitario

J. Mohor 75'

A. Santacruz 31'

4/9/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 7Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Manta FC41%

×Draw28%

Tecnico Universitario31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Manta FC

1.27

Tecnico Universitario

1.08

Manta FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 127 away

1.16

creates per match

0.86

1.30

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Manta FC

1.16

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Manta FC

1.30

Tecnico Universitario

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

69%

Manta FC or Tecnico Universitario

72%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

59%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

18%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

72%

Manta FC 2+ goals

36%

Manta FC 3+ goals

14%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

66%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

29%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

56%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.16 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Manta FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manta FC scores more

41%

level

28%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

31%

Manta FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Patino

24'

D. Jimenez

31'

A. Santacruz↳ M. Rizotto

46'

C. Cuero← I. Trelles

51'

D. Patino

51'

D. Patino

51'

J. Chavez

53'

M. Rizotto

60'

H. Piedra

62'

A. Mendoza

63'

J. Mesias← Á. Ledesma

63'

J. Mohor← M. Mejía

74'

O. Quintero← J. Chávez

74'

75'

78'

78'

79'

J. Caicedo← G. Martínez

85'

J. Lucas← L. Congo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MantaTecnico

Overview

49%Possession51%

4Total Shots9

3Corners3

22Fouls22

Shots

4Total Shots9

1On Target4

3Off Target5

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls22

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0