Manta FC 3–1 Clan Juvenil: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Clan Juvenil

5/27/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 15Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Manta FC63%

×Draw22%

Clan Juvenil15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchClan Juvenil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.76

Manta FC

1.83

Clan Juvenil

0.76

Manta FC creates 141% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 40 away

1.43

creates per match

0.65

0.86

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Manta FC

1.43

Clan Juvenil

0.65

allows per match

Manta FC

0.86

Clan Juvenil

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Clan Juvenil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

85%

Manta FC or Clan Juvenil

78%

Draw or Clan Juvenil

37%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

37%

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

84%

Manta FC 2+ goals

54%

Manta FC 3+ goals

28%

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals

53%

Clan Juvenil 2+ goals

18%

Clan Juvenil 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

81%

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Clan Juvenil away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + Clan Juvenil defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Clan Juvenil attack 0.65 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Manta FC scores more

63%

level

22%

Clan Juvenil scores more

15%

Manta FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff