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Mansfield Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
N. Maynard 33'
E. Adebayo 49'
10/31/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 10One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town44%
×Draw26%
Walsall30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.46
Walsall
1.17

Mansfield Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 156 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
70%
Mansfield Town or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
21%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
77%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
43%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
18%
Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
59%
Walsall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Walsall attack 1.13 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
44%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
30%

Mansfield Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
D. ScarrWalsallWalsall · D
7.5

Match Events

33'
N. Maynard↳ G. Lapslie
49'
E. Adebayo↳ G. Nurse
50'
Hayden White
52'
L. Kinsella← D. Guthrie
62'
James Perch
65'
C. Norman← H. White
70'
C. Lavery← S. Sinclair
75'
J. Bowery← A. Cook
80'
Nicky Maynard
90'
Caolan Lavery

Possession

51%Mansfield

Shots

10Mansfield

Pass accuracy

52%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldWalsall
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots9
2Corners0
17Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots9
3On Target5
5Off Target3
2Blocked1
5Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
402Total Passes387
308Accurate Passes275
77%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

League Two: Mansfield Town 1–1 Walsall

Mansfield Town and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on October 31, 2020.

Goals: N. Maynard (33'), E. Adebayo (49').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.