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Mansfield Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
CANC
00:00
Walsall
Walsall
3/21/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 40One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town44%
×Draw26%
Walsall30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.46
Walsall
1.17

Mansfield Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 156 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
70%
Mansfield Town or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
21%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
77%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
43%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
18%
Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
59%
Walsall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Walsall attack 1.13 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
44%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
30%

Mansfield Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mansfield Town host Walsall

March 21, 2020: Mansfield Town take on Walsall in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mansfield Town host Walsall at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.