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Mansfield Town vs Rotherham — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
0 – 3
Rotherham
Rotherham
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mansfield Town17%
×Draw21%
Rotherham62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
0.94
Rotherham
2.02

Rotherham creates 115% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.00
Rotherham
2.80

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.25
Rotherham
0.87

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
38%
Mansfield Town or Rotherham
79%
Draw or Rotherham
83%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
6%
Rotherham wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
61%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
24%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
7%
Rotherham 1+ goals
87%
Rotherham 2+ goals
60%
Rotherham 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
21%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rotherham away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.00 + Rotherham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Rotherham attack 2.80 + Mansfield Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
17%
level
21%
Rotherham scores more
62%

Rotherham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Mansfield Town 0–3 Rotherham

Rotherham beat Mansfield Town 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.