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Mansfield Town vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
1/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 24One Call Stadium
Big match
47%
Plymouth
model favours
30%22%47%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Mansfield Town30%
×Draw22%
Plymouth47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.50
Plymouth
1.92

Plymouth creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.77
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.84
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
53%
Mansfield Town or Plymouth
78%
Draw or Plymouth
70%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
78%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
44%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
19%
Plymouth 1+ goals
85%
Plymouth 2+ goals
57%
Plymouth 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
39%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
30%
level
22%
Plymouth scores more
47%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 2.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Mansfield Town
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
48%Possession49%
71%Pass accuracy68%
11.7Shots13.4
1.37xGBiggest gap2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownPlymouth

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
7
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
1–12–01–30–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWDWW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mansfield Town face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with Mansfield Town hosting Plymouth. Match starts January 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mansfield Town host Plymouth at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.