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Manonyane vs Linare — League #962 2026

Manonyane
Manonyane
FT
0 – 1
Linare
Linare
1/21/2024League #962League #962 · Round 14Nyakosoba Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Manonyane9%
×Draw25%
Linare66%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manonyane
0.38
Linare
1.50

Linare creates 295% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Manonyane
0.50
Linare
1.50

allows per match

Manonyane
1.50
Linare
0.25

finishing

Manonyane+0.00on par
Linare+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manonyane ↓

Linare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–123%
0–217%
0–39%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Manonyane or draw
34%
Manonyane or Linare
75%
Draw or Linare
91%

Winning margin

Manonyane wins by 2+
2%
Linare wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Manonyane 1+ goals
32%
Manonyane 2+ goals
6%
Manonyane 3+ goals
1%
Linare 1+ goals
78%
Linare 2+ goals
44%
Linare 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Manonyane (draw refunded)
12%
Linare (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manonyane at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Linare away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manonyane attack 0.50 + Linare defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Linare attack 1.50 + Manonyane defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Manonyane scores more
9%
level
25%
Linare scores more
66%

Linare at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Linare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #962: Manonyane 0–1 Linare

Linare beat Manonyane 1-0 in League #962 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Nyakosoba Ground in Nyakosoba.