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Mannswörth vs Slovan HAC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
CANC
14:00
Slovan HAC
Slovan HAC
2/20/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 14Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mannswörth44%
×Draw23%
Slovan HAC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.77
Slovan HAC
1.52

Mannswörth creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 74 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Slovan HAC
1.45

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Slovan HAC
2.15

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Slovan HAC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Slovan HAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
67%
Mannswörth or Slovan HAC
77%
Draw or Slovan HAC
56%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
23%
Slovan HAC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
83%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
53%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
26%
Slovan HAC 1+ goals
78%
Slovan HAC 2+ goals
45%
Slovan HAC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
57%
Slovan HAC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Slovan HAC away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Slovan HAC defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slovan HAC attack 1.45 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mannswörth scores more
44%
level
23%
Slovan HAC scores more
33%

Mannswörth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mannswörth host Slovan HAC

February 20, 2021: Mannswörth take on Slovan HAC in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mannswörth host Slovan HAC at Sportplatz Mannswörth.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.