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Manitoba vs Peoria — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
PST
00:00
Peoria
Peoria
6/19/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba30%
×Draw23%
Peoria47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
1.43
Peoria
1.84

Peoria creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
Peoria
2.13

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
Peoria
1.13

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
Peoria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Peoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
53%
Manitoba or Peoria
77%
Draw or Peoria
70%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
14%
Peoria wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
76%
Manitoba 2+ goals
42%
Manitoba 3+ goals
17%
Peoria 1+ goals
84%
Peoria 2+ goals
55%
Peoria 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
39%
Peoria (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Peoria away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Peoria defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.43

Peoria attack 2.13 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manitoba scores more
30%
level
23%
Peoria scores more
47%

Peoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manitoba face Peoria (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Manitoba hosting Peoria. Match starts June 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manitoba host Peoria at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.