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Manitoba vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
PST
00:00
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
7/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba42%
×Draw24%
Kaw Valley34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
1.61
Kaw Valley
1.42

Manitoba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
66%
Manitoba or Kaw Valley
76%
Draw or Kaw Valley
58%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
21%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
80%
Manitoba 2+ goals
48%
Manitoba 3+ goals
22%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
76%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
41%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
55%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Manitoba scores more
42%
level
24%
Kaw Valley scores more
34%

Manitoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Manitoba host Kaw Valley

July 10, 2020: Manitoba take on Kaw Valley in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Manitoba host Kaw Valley at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.