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Manitoba vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
PST
20:00
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/7/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manitoba52%
×Draw22%
Green Bay Voyageurs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
1.92
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.27

Manitoba creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
75%
Manitoba or Green Bay Voyageurs
78%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
48%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
30%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
85%
Manitoba 2+ goals
57%
Manitoba 3+ goals
30%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
72%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
36%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
67%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.92

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manitoba scores more
52%
level
22%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
25%

Manitoba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manitoba vs Green Bay Voyageurs — Match Preview

Manitoba face Green Bay Voyageurs on June 7, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Manitoba host Green Bay Voyageurs at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex (Winnipeg, Manitoba).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.