Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vendsyssel FF vs Brønshøj — 1. Division 2011

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brønshøj
Brønshøj
S. Alic 50'
L. Strandberg 46'
S. Schmidt 57'
L. Fosgaard 27'
10/23/20111. Division1. Division · Round 11Hjørring Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vendsyssel FF22%
×Draw22%
Brønshøj56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Brønshøj
2.00

Brønshøj creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.00
Brønshøj
2.33

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.67
Brønshøj
1.33

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Brønshøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
44%
Vendsyssel FF or Brønshøj
78%
Draw or Brønshøj
78%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
9%
Brønshøj wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
69%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
33%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
11%
Brønshøj 1+ goals
86%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
59%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
28%
Brønshøj (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.00 + Brønshøj defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brønshøj attack 2.33 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
22%
level
22%
Brønshøj scores more
56%

Brønshøj at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brønshøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
L. Fosgaard
46'
L. Strandberg
50'
S. Alic
57'
S. Schmidt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs Brønshøj

Vendsyssel FF and Brønshøj drew 2-2 in 1. Division on October 23, 2011.

Goals: L. Fosgaard (27'), L. Strandberg (46'), S. Alic (50'), S. Schmidt (57').

The match was played at Hjørring Stadion.