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Manisa F.K. vs Vanspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
16:00
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
8/16/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
42%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
42%25%33%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Manisa F.K.42%
×Draw25%
Vanspor FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.30

Manisa F.K. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 19 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Vanspor FK
1.42

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Vanspor FK
1.53

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
67%
Manisa F.K. or Vanspor FK
75%
Draw or Vanspor FK
58%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
20%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
77%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
44%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
19%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
73%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
37%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
56%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Vanspor FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Vanspor FK attack 1.42 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
42%
level
25%
Vanspor FK scores more
33%

Manisa F.K. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
FK
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manisa F.K. face Vanspor FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Manisa F.K. hosting Vanspor FK. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manisa F.K. host Vanspor FK at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.