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Manisa F.K. vs Sivasspor — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
17:00
Sivasspor
Sivasspor
1/24/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
43%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
43%28%29%

Sivasspor win just 20% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Manisa F.K.43%
×Draw28%
Sivasspor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.33
Sivasspor
1.04

Manisa F.K. creates 28% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 19 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Sivasspor
0.89

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Sivasspor
1.21

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Sivasspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
71%
Manisa F.K. or Sivasspor
72%
Draw or Sivasspor
57%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
20%
Sivasspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
74%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
38%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
15%
Sivasspor 1+ goals
65%
Sivasspor 2+ goals
28%
Sivasspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
60%
Sivasspor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Sivasspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sivasspor attack 0.89 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
43%
level
28%
Sivasspor scores more
29%

Manisa F.K. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
Sivasspor
LWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manisa F.K. vs Sivasspor — Match Preview

Manisa F.K. face Sivasspor on January 24, 2027 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Manisa F.K. host Sivasspor at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.