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Manisa F.K. vs Keçiörengücü — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
16:00
Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
4/11/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 33Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
Big match
40%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
40%27%33%

Keçiörengücü win just 25% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Manisa F.K.40%
×Draw27%
Keçiörengücü33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.35
Keçiörengücü
1.19

Manisa F.K. creates 13% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 125 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Keçiörengücü
1.19

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Keçiörengücü
1.25

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Keçiörengücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
67%
Manisa F.K. or Keçiörengücü
73%
Draw or Keçiörengücü
60%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
19%
Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
74%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
39%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
15%
Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
70%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
33%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
55%
Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Keçiörengücü away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Keçiörengücü attack 1.19 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
40%
level
27%
Keçiörengücü scores more
33%

Manisa F.K. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Keçiörengücü fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 2.3 expected)
  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Manisa F.K.
Balanced
Keçiörengücü
Attack-heavy
52%Possession51%
78%Pass accuracy80%
11.9Shots12.7
1.47xGBiggest gap2.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Manisa F.K.Keçiörengücü

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Manisa F.K.
5
Draws
4
Keçiörengücü
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–22–21–20–41–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
Keçiörengücü
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Manisa F.K. host Keçiörengücü

April 11, 2027: Manisa F.K. take on Keçiörengücü in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Manisa F.K. host Keçiörengücü at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.