Manisa F.K. 1–2 Keçiörengücü: Result & Stats

Manisa F.K.

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Keçiörengücü

9/25/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMümin Özkasap Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manisa F.K.57%

×Draw21%

Keçiörengücü22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manisa F.K.Expected goals in this matchKeçiörengücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.20

Manisa F.K.

2.05

Keçiörengücü

1.20

Manisa F.K. creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

0.89

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Manisa F.K.

2.00

Keçiörengücü

1.50

allows per match

Manisa F.K.

0.89

Keçiörengücü

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Keçiörengücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw

78%

Manisa F.K. or Keçiörengücü

79%

Draw or Keçiörengücü

43%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

34%

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

87%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

61%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

33%

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

70%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

34%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

72%

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Keçiörengücü away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 2.00 + Keçiörengücü defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Keçiörengücü attack 1.50 + Manisa F.K. defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more

57%

level

21%

Keçiörengücü scores more

22%

Manisa F.K. at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff