Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manisa F.K. vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
17:00
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
2/7/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
40%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
40%26%34%

Iğdır FK win just 24% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Manisa F.K.40%
×Draw26%
Iğdır FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.40
Iğdır FK
1.27

Manisa F.K. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
66%
Manisa F.K. or Iğdır FK
74%
Draw or Iğdır FK
60%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
19%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
75%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
41%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
17%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
72%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
36%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
54%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
40%
level
26%
Iğdır FK scores more
34%

Manisa F.K. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals
  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Manisa F.K.
Balanced
Iğdır FK
Balanced
52%Possession55%
78%Pass accuracy81%
11.9ShotsBiggest gap9.5
1.47xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Manisa F.K.Iğdır FK

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Manisa F.K.
2
Draws
2
Iğdır FK
Avg goals: 1BTTS: 25%
0–01–10–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
FK
DLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manisa F.K. face Iğdır FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Manisa F.K. hosting Iğdır FK. Match starts February 7, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manisa F.K. host Iğdır FK at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.