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Manisa F.K. vs Boluspor — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boluspor
Boluspor
8/13/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 1Mümin Özkasap Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Manisa F.K.43%
×Draw26%
Boluspor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.42
Boluspor
1.17

Manisa F.K. creates 21% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 148 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Boluspor
1.15

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Boluspor
1.40

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
69%
Manisa F.K. or Boluspor
74%
Draw or Boluspor
57%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
20%
Boluspor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
76%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
41%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
17%
Boluspor 1+ goals
69%
Boluspor 2+ goals
33%
Boluspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
58%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Boluspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Boluspor attack 1.15 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
43%
level
26%
Boluspor scores more
31%

Manisa F.K. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Manisa F.K. 0–1 Boluspor

Boluspor beat Manisa F.K. 1-0 in 1. Lig on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Mümin Özkasap Spor Tesisleri in Manisa.