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Manisa F.K. vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
17:00
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
12/6/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
Big match
40%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
40%26%33%

Bandırmaspor are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Manisa F.K.40%
×Draw26%
Bandırmaspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.38
Bandırmaspor
1.23

Manisa F.K. creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
67%
Manisa F.K. or Bandırmaspor
74%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
60%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
19%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
75%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
40%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
16%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
35%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
55%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
40%
level
26%
Bandırmaspor scores more
33%

Manisa F.K. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bandırmaspor score first in only 8% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Manisa F.K.
Balanced
Bandırmaspor
Balanced
52%Possession49%
78%Pass accuracy77%
11.9Shots11.4
1.47xGBiggest gap1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Manisa F.K.Bandırmaspor

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Manisa F.K.
3
Draws
4
Bandırmaspor
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 70%
3–24–11–13–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
Bandırmaspor
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manisa F.K. face Bandırmaspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Manisa F.K. hosting Bandırmaspor. Match starts December 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manisa F.K. host Bandırmaspor at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.