Maniema Union 3–0 Rangers: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Maniema Union

FT

3 – 0

Rangers

9/10/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Maniema Union55%

×Draw27%

Rangers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maniema UnionExpected goals in this matchRangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.68

Maniema Union

1.42

Rangers

0.68

Maniema Union creates 109% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

0.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Maniema Union

1.65

Rangers

0.86

allows per match

Maniema Union

0.50

Rangers

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw

82%

Maniema Union or Rangers

73%

Draw or Rangers

45%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+

28%

Rangers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals

76%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

41%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

17%

Rangers 1+ goals

49%

Rangers 2+ goals

15%

Rangers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

75%

Rangers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.19 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + Rangers defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rangers attack 0.86 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maniema Union scores more

55%

level

27%

Rangers scores more

18%

Maniema Union at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff