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Manica Diamonds vs Simba Bhora — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
11/8/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Manica Diamonds40%
×Draw33%
Simba Bhora27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.01
Simba Bhora
0.76

Manica Diamonds creates 33% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 62 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.07
Simba Bhora
0.94

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.58
Simba Bhora
0.95

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Simba Bhora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
73%
Manica Diamonds or Simba Bhora
67%
Draw or Simba Bhora
60%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
16%
Simba Bhora wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
64%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
27%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
8%
Simba Bhora 1+ goals
53%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
18%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
60%
Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
40%
level
33%
Simba Bhora scores more
27%

Manica Diamonds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Manica Diamonds 1–0 Simba Bhora

Manica Diamonds beat Simba Bhora 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.