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Mangasport vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Mangasport
Mangasport
CANC
15:00
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
4/30/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mangasport53%
×Draw26%
Stade Mandji21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mangasport
1.48
Stade Mandji
0.81

Mangasport creates 83% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mangasport
2.13
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Mangasport
0.68
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Mangasport+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mangasport ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mangasport or draw
79%
Mangasport or Stade Mandji
74%
Draw or Stade Mandji
47%

Winning margin

Mangasport wins by 2+
27%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mangasport 1+ goals
77%
Mangasport 2+ goals
43%
Mangasport 3+ goals
19%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
56%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
19%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mangasport (draw refunded)
72%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mangasport at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mangasport attack 2.13 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Mangasport defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mangasport scores more
53%
level
26%
Stade Mandji scores more
21%

Mangasport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mangasport vs Stade Mandji — Match Preview

Mangasport face Stade Mandji on April 30, 2023 in this Championnat D1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.