Manchester United 1–1 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool

Z. Ibrahimović 84'

J. Milner 27' (pen)

1/15/2017

Premier League · Round 21Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester United46%

×Draw23%

Liverpool30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.37

Manchester United

1.75

Liverpool

1.37

Manchester United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

2.19

creates per match

1.62

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Manchester United

2.19

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Liverpool

1.31

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

70%

Manchester United or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

54%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

25%

Liverpool wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

83%

Manchester United 2+ goals

52%

Manchester United 3+ goals

25%

Liverpool 1+ goals

75%

Liverpool 2+ goals

40%

Liverpool 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

61%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 30 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.19 + Liverpool defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manchester United scores more

46%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

30%

Manchester United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

P. Jones

Manchester United · D

8.1

Match Events

27'

J. MilnerPenalty

31'

Dejan Lovren

46'

W. Rooney← M. Carrick

61'

Georginio Wijnaldum

61'

Philippe Coutinho← D. Origi

65'

Mata← A. Martial

76'

M. Fellaini← M. Darmian

84'

Z. Ibrahimović↳ A. Valencia

90'

Ander Herrera

90'

Roberto Firmino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLiverpool

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots13

5Corners7

17Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked7

5Inside Box11

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

487Total Passes389

373Accurate Passes279

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2