Manchester United 4–0 Crystal Palace

Manchester United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Crystal Palace

R. Lukaku 86'

M. Fellaini 49', 35'

Mata 3'

9/30/2017

Premier League · Round 7Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Manchester United50%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Manchester United

1.71

Crystal Palace

1.16

Manchester United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

2.15

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Manchester United

2.15

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Manchester United

1.12

Crystal Palace

1.28

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.22scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

74%

Manchester United or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

50%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

27%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

82%

Manchester United 2+ goals

51%

Manchester United 3+ goals

24%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

69%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

32%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

66%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.12 · 29 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.15 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Manchester United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manchester United scores more

50%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

26%

Manchester United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Fellaini

Manchester United · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

Mata↳ M. Rashford

35'

M. Fellaini↳ A. Young

49'

M. Fellaini↳ M. Rashford

66'

J. Lingard← H. Mkhitaryan

68'

J. McArthur← J. Schlupp

69'

J. Riedewald← J. Puncheon

72'

A. Martial← M. Rashford

74'

F. Ladapo← B. Sako

77'

Ander Herrera← Mata

86'

R. Lukaku↳ A. Martial

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterCrystal

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots6

6Corners5

6Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots6

7On Target1

6Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

566Total Passes377

474Accurate Passes295

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Offsides1