Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

Cristiano Ronaldo 62'

Marcos Alonso 60'

4/28/2022

Premier League · Round 37Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Manchester United49%

×Draw23%

Chelsea28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.31

Manchester United

1.80

Chelsea

1.31

Manchester United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

2.11

creates per match

1.49

1.12

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Manchester United

2.11

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Manchester United

1.12

Chelsea

1.49

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Manchester United-0.15scores less

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

72%

Manchester United or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

51%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

27%

Chelsea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

83%

Manchester United 2+ goals

54%

Manchester United 3+ goals

27%

Chelsea 1+ goals

73%

Chelsea 2+ goals

38%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

64%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.11 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.80

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Manchester United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Manchester United scores more

49%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

28%

Manchester United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. James

Chelsea · M

8.6

Match Events

60'

Marcos Alonso↳ K. Havertz

62'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ N. Matić

70'

R. Lukaku← K. Havertz

71'

C. Pulisic← T. Werner

79'

P. Jones← N. Matić

79'

Mata← M. Rashford

82'

R. Loftus-Cheek← N. Kanté

87'

Antonio Rüdiger

90+1'

Alejandro Garnacho← A. Elanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterChelsea

Overview

35%Possession65%

6Total Shots21

2Corners9

9Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots21

3On Target6

1Off Target9

2Blocked6

4Inside Box15

2Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

345Total Passes628

272Accurate Passes556

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3