Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

R. van Persie 90+4'

D. Drogba 53'

10/26/2014

Premier League · Round 9Old Trafford (Manchester)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Manchester United48%

×Draw23%

Chelsea29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.33

Manchester United

1.79

Chelsea

1.33

Manchester United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

2.11

creates per match

1.54

1.11

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Manchester United

2.11

Chelsea

1.54

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Chelsea

1.47

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.15scores less

Chelsea-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

71%

Manchester United or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

52%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

26%

Chelsea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

83%

Manchester United 2+ goals

53%

Manchester United 3+ goals

26%

Chelsea 1+ goals

74%

Chelsea 2+ goals

38%

Chelsea 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

63%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.11 + Chelsea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chelsea attack 1.54 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Manchester United scores more

48%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

29%

Manchester United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

D. Drogba↳ Fàbregas

67'

J. Wilson← Mata

67'

J. Obi Mikel← Oscar

90+3'

K. Zouma← Willian

90'

A. Schürrle← E. Hazard

90+4'

R. van Persie

Manchester

Chelsea

13

26

24

3

2

4

A

Fàbregas

22

▼

Willian

21

Matić

10

▼

Hazard

8

▼

Oscar

11

⚽

1

2

5

12

3

31

7

17

11

20

⚽

Persie

8

▼

Mata

67'▲J. Wilson←▼Mata

Manchester United substitutes

49Wilson13Lindegaard16Carrick21Herrera24Fletcher42Blackett44Pereira

67'▲J. Obi Mikel←▼Oscar

90+3'▲K. Zouma←▼Willian

90'▲A. Schürrle←▼E. Hazard

Chelsea substitutes

12Mikel5Zouma14Schürrle1Čech6Aké17Salah34Baker