Manchester United 0–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

K. Hause 88'

9/25/2021

Premier League · Round 6Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Manchester United55%

×Draw22%

Aston Villa22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.13

Manchester United

1.90

Aston Villa

1.13

Manchester United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

2.15

creates per match

1.14

1.12

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Manchester United

2.15

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Manchester United

1.12

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Manchester United-0.22scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

78%

Manchester United or Aston Villa

78%

Draw or Aston Villa

45%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

32%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

85%

Manchester United 2+ goals

56%

Manchester United 3+ goals

29%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

68%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

31%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

71%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.12 · 29 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.15 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Manchester United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester United scores more

55%

level

22%

Aston Villa scores more

22%

Manchester United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Bruno Fernandes

Manchester United · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

Luke Shaw

34'

Diogo Dalot← L. Shaw

66'

John McGinn

66'

V. Lindelöf← H. Maguire

77'

Fred

78'

E. Buendía← D. Ings

81'

E. Cavani← S. McTominay

86'

C. Archer← J. Ramsey

88'

K. Hause↳ Douglas Luiz

90'

Matty Cash

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterAston

Overview

60%Possession40%

28Total Shots7

5Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

28Total Shots7

4On Target3

11Off Target3

13Blocked1

17Inside Box4

11Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

409Total Passes271

313Accurate Passes187

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3