Manchester United 2–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

V. Lindelöf 64'

T. Heaton 42' (OG)

T. Mings 66'

J. Grealish 11'

12/1/2019

Premier League · Round 14Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester United55%

×Draw22%

Aston Villa23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.15

Manchester United

1.92

Aston Villa

1.15

Manchester United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

2.19

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Manchester United

2.19

Aston Villa

1.19

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Aston Villa+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

77%

Manchester United or Aston Villa

78%

Draw or Aston Villa

45%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

32%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

85%

Manchester United 2+ goals

57%

Manchester United 3+ goals

30%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

68%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

32%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

71%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 30 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.19 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Aston Villa attack 1.19 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester United scores more

55%

level

22%

Aston Villa scores more

23%

Manchester United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Targett

Aston Villa · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

Harry Maguire

11'

J. Grealish↳ A. El Ghazi

18'

Trézéguet← A. El Ghazi

24'

Fred

42'

T. HeatonOwn goal

45'

62'

64'

66'

74'

J. Lingard← Mata

79'

L. Shaw← B. Williams

81'

H. Lansbury← C. Hourihane

82'

M. Greenwood← A. Martial

89'

Luke Shaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterAston

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots9

9Corners9

16Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target3

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

525Total Passes309

452Accurate Passes221

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4