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Manchester City vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
S. Nasri 66'
S. Agüero 19' (pen)
S. Sessègnon 6'
4/9/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Manchester City67%
×Draw20%
West Brom14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.10
West Brom
0.83

Manchester City creates 153% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 94 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.70
West Brom
0.84

allows per match

Manchester City
0.83
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
86%
Manchester City or West Brom
80%
Draw or West Brom
33%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
42%
West Brom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
88%
Manchester City 2+ goals
62%
Manchester City 3+ goals
35%
West Brom 1+ goals
56%
West Brom 2+ goals
20%
West Brom 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
83%
West Brom (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.10

West Brom attack 0.84 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manchester City scores more
67%
level
20%
West Brom scores more
14%

Manchester City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. AgüeroManchester CityManchester City · F
7.9

Match Events

6'
S. Sessègnon↳ J. McClean
19'
S. AgüeroPenalty
21'
C. Gardner← S. Rondón
33'
Craig Gardner
60'
Y. Touré← F. Delph
60'
K. De Bruyne← W. Bony
66'
S. Nasri
80'
J. Leko← S. Sessègnon
90'
G. Clichy← S. Agüero

Possession

62%Manchester

Shots

13Manchester

Pass accuracy

54%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterWest
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots13
8Corners8
0Fouls0
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target2
4Off Target6
5Blocked5
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
548Total Passes316
458Accurate Passes230
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Premier League: Manchester City 2–1 West Brom

Manchester City beat West Brom 2-1 in Premier League on April 9, 2016.

Goals: S. Sessègnon (6'), S. Agüero (19' pen), S. Nasri (66').

Manchester City controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.