Manchester City 3–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

S. Agüero 63'

C. Kabasele 13' (OG)

R. Sterling 1'

A. Gray 82'

1/2/2018

Premier League · Round 22Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Manchester City68%

×Draw19%

Watford14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.90

Manchester City

2.25

Watford

0.90

Manchester City creates 150% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 112 away

2.70

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Manchester City

2.70

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

86%

Manchester City or Watford

81%

Draw or Watford

32%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

44%

Watford wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City 2+ goals

65%

Manchester City 3+ goals

39%

Watford 1+ goals

59%

Watford 2+ goals

23%

Watford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

83%

Watford (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.25

Watford attack 0.96 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Manchester City scores more

68%

level

19%

Watford scores more

14%

Manchester City at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.3

Match Events

1'

R. Sterling↳ L. Sané

13'

C. KabaseleOwn goal

24'

David Silva

61'

T. Cleverley← E. Capoue

61'

R. Pereyra← B. Watson

63'

S. Agüero

67'

Danilo← J. Stones

71'

Y. Touré← Fernandinho

79'

Bernardo Silva← K. De Bruyne

82'

J. Sinclair← Richarlison

82'

A. Gray↳ A. Carrillo

83'

Roberto Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterWatford

Overview

76%Possession24%

18Total Shots7

9Corners1

8Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target4

8Off Target2

3Blocked1

14Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

854Total Passes261

784Accurate Passes182

92%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3