Manchester City 6–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Newcastle

S. Agüero 62', 60', 50', 49', 42'

K. De Bruyne 53'

A. Mitrović 18'

10/3/2015

Premier League · Round 8Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Manchester City51%

×Draw24%

Newcastle25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.11

Manchester City

1.68

Newcastle

1.11

Manchester City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

2.08

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Newcastle

1.27

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Newcastle-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

75%

Manchester City or Newcastle

76%

Draw or Newcastle

49%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

27%

Newcastle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

81%

Manchester City 2+ goals

50%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Newcastle 1+ goals

67%

Newcastle 2+ goals

30%

Newcastle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

67%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Newcastle defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Newcastle attack 1.23 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manchester City scores more

51%

level

24%

Newcastle scores more

25%

Manchester City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Agüero

Manchester City · F

10.0

Match Events

18'

A. Mitrović↳ G. Wijnaldum

36'

Vurnon Anita

42'

S. Agüero↳ Fernandinho

45'

Fernandinho

46'

Jesús Navas← R. Sterling

49'

S. Agüero↳ David Silva

50'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

53'

J. Lascelles← K. Mbabu

53'

K. De Bruyne↳ Jesús Navas

60'

S. Agüero↳ David Silva

62'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

66'

W. Bony← S. Agüero

66'

F. Thauvin← Y. Gouffran

66'

C. Tioté← M. Sissoko

75'

K. Iheanacho← David Silva

82'

Pablo Zabaleta

88'

Eliaquim Mangala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterNewcastle

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots6

6Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

23Total Shots6

11On Target4

8Off Target1

4Blocked1

14Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

590Total Passes335

498Accurate Passes250

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

0Fouls0

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3