Manchester City 5–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.07

Manchester City

1.69

Crystal Palace

1.07

Manchester City creates 58% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

2.11

creates per match

1.21

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Crystal Palace

1.26

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

76%

Manchester City or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

48%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

28%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

50%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

66%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

29%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

68%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manchester City scores more

52%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

24%

Manchester City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

10.0

Match Events

2'

David Silva

4'

Martin Kelly

33'

Vincent Kompany

49'

V. Kompany↳ K. De Bruyne

52'

Luka Milivojević

57'

Chung-Yong Lee← A. Townsend

59'

K. De Bruyne↳ Gabriel Jesus

67'

M. Flamini← L. Milivojević

68'

P. Zabaleta← David Silva

76'

D. Delaney← M. Kelly

82'

R. Sterling↳ P. Zabaleta

84'

Jesús Navas← L. Sané

84'

K. Iheanacho← Gabriel Jesus

90'

Damien Delaney

90+2'

N. Otamendi↳ K. De Bruyne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterCrystal

Overview

69%Possession31%

26Total Shots5

9Corners3

12Fouls8

Shots

26Total Shots5

12On Target2

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

22Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

611Total Passes266

538Accurate Passes189

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Premier League: Manchester City 5–0 Crystal Palace

Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 5-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2017.

Goals: David Silva (2'), V. Kompany (49'), K. De Bruyne (59'), R. Sterling (82'), N. Otamendi (90+2').

Manchester City controlled possession (69%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Manchester City 5–0 Crystal Palace