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Manchester City vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
R. Mahrez 37'
K. De Bruyne 29'
N. Kanté 21'
11/23/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Manchester City50%
×Draw23%
Chelsea26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.79
Chelsea
1.23

Manchester City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.10
Chelsea
1.49

allows per match

Manchester City
0.96
Chelsea
1.49

finishing

Manchester City+0.34scores more
Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
74%
Manchester City or Chelsea
77%
Draw or Chelsea
50%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
28%
Chelsea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
83%
Manchester City 2+ goals
53%
Manchester City 3+ goals
26%
Chelsea 1+ goals
71%
Chelsea 2+ goals
35%
Chelsea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
66%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 36 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.10 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manchester City scores more
50%
level
23%
Chelsea scores more
26%

Manchester City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. KovačićChelseaChelsea · M
8.0

Match Events

21'
N. Kanté↳ M. Kovačić
29'
K. De Bruyne
37'
R. Mahrez↳ Rodri
52'
İ. Gündoğan← Rodri
59'
R. James← Emerson
61'
Jorginho
67'
P. Foden← David Silva
73'
M. Batshuayi← T. Abraham
74'
M. Mount← Jorginho
77'
Gabriel Jesus← S. Agüero
90'
İlkay Gündoğan

Possession

46%Manchester

Shots

15Manchester

Pass accuracy

49%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterChelsea
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots11
8Corners2
5Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target2
7Off Target6
4Blocked3
7Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
558Total Passes644
477Accurate Passes574
85%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Chelsea

Manchester City beat Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on November 23, 2019.

Goals: N. Kanté (21'), K. De Bruyne (29'), R. Mahrez (37').

Chelsea controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.