Manchester City 1–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

G. Cahill 45' (OG)

E. Hazard 90'

Willian 70'

Diego Costa 60'

12/3/2016

Premier League · Round 14Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Manchester City51%

×Draw23%

Chelsea25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.19

Manchester City

1.79

Chelsea

1.19

Manchester City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

2.11

creates per match

1.45

0.94

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Chelsea

1.48

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

75%

Manchester City or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

49%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

28%

Chelsea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

83%

Manchester City 2+ goals

53%

Manchester City 3+ goals

26%

Chelsea 1+ goals

70%

Chelsea 2+ goals

33%

Chelsea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

67%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manchester City scores more

51%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

25%

Manchester City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Diego Costa

Chelsea · F

8.4

Match Events

17'

Nicolás Otamendi

45'

G. CahillOwn goal

49'

N'Golo Kanté

50'

Willian← Pedro

60'

Diego Costa↳ Fàbregas

69'

G. Clichy← L. Sané

70'

Willian↳ Diego Costa

76'

Y. Touré← İ. Gündoğan

78'

K. Iheanacho← J. Stones

81'

Jesús Navas

85'

N. Chalobah← Diego Costa

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+4'

M. Batshuayi← E. Hazard

90'

E. Hazard↳ Marcos Alonso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterChelsea

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots10

9Corners2

14Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target5

2Blocked1

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

541Total Passes364

456Accurate Passes270

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Manchester City 3-1 in Premier League on December 3, 2016.

Goals: G. Cahill (45' o.g.), Diego Costa (60'), Willian (70'), E. Hazard (90').

Manchester City controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Chelsea