Manchester City 3–0 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

Fernandinho 85'

V. Kompany 79'

S. Agüero 31'

8/16/2015

Premier League · Round 2Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Manchester City49%

×Draw23%

Chelsea28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Manchester City

1.77

Chelsea

1.27

Manchester City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

2.08

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Chelsea

1.54

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Chelsea

1.47

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Chelsea-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

72%

Manchester City or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

51%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

27%

Chelsea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

83%

Manchester City 2+ goals

53%

Manchester City 3+ goals

26%

Chelsea 1+ goals

72%

Chelsea 2+ goals

36%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

64%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Chelsea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chelsea attack 1.54 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Manchester City scores more

49%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

28%

Manchester City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Kolarov

Manchester City · D

8.0

Match Events

31'

33'

45'

46'

48'

51'

64'

65'

S. Nasri← Jesús Navas

79'

M. Demichelis← R. Sterling

79'

R. Falcao← Willian

79'

V. Kompany↳ David Silva

81'

Eden Hazard

83'

W. Bony← S. Agüero

85'

Fernandinho↳ David Silva

90'

Eliaquim Mangala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterChelsea

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots10

5Corners1

0Fouls0

Shots

18Total Shots10

8On Target3

6Off Target4

4Blocked3

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

423Total Passes443

345Accurate Passes367

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3