Manchester City 4–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Arsenal

E. Haaland 90+5'

K. De Bruyne 54', 7'

J. Stones 45+1'

R. Holding 86'

4/26/2023

Premier League · Round 33Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester City44%

×Draw25%

Arsenal32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.30

Manchester City

1.57

Arsenal

1.30

Manchester City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

2.08

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Arsenal

1.60

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Arsenal

1.06

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Arsenal+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

68%

Manchester City or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

56%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

22%

Arsenal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

46%

Manchester City 3+ goals

21%

Arsenal 1+ goals

73%

Arsenal 2+ goals

37%

Arsenal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

58%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.06 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Arsenal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Arsenal attack 1.60 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manchester City scores more

44%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

32%

Manchester City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

9.2

Match Events

7'

K. De Bruyne↳ E. Haaland

45+5'

Rúben Dias

45+2'

John StonesGoal confirmed

45+1'

J. Stones↳ K. De Bruyne

54'

K. De Bruyne↳ E. Haaland

60'

Jorginho← G. Xhaka

60'

L. Trossard← Gabriel Martinelli

71'

E. Smith Rowe← M. Ødegaard

72'

R. Mahrez← İ. Gündoğan

75'

Jack Grealish

76'

Thomas Partey

80'

J. Álvarez← K. De Bruyne

80'

R. Nelson← B. Saka

80'

E. Nketiah← Gabriel Jesus

86'

R. Holding↳ L. Trossard

87'

P. Foden← J. Grealish

88'

Rodri

90+5'

E. Haaland↳ P. Foden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterArsenal

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots8

2.53Expected Goals (xG)0.48

1Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots8

9On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

495Total Passes457

421Accurate Passes387

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1