Manchego 2–0 Toledo: Result & Stats

Manchego

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Toledo

12/17/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 14Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Manchego44%

×Draw30%

Toledo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManchegoExpected goals in this matchToledo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.84

Manchego

1.20

Toledo

0.84

Manchego creates 43% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

1.56

creates per match

1.01

0.67

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Manchego

1.56

Toledo

1.01

allows per match

Manchego

0.67

Toledo

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par

Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Toledo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Manchego or draw

74%

Manchego or Toledo

70%

Draw or Toledo

56%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+

19%

Toledo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals

70%

Manchego 2+ goals

34%

Manchego 3+ goals

12%

Toledo 1+ goals

57%

Toledo 2+ goals

21%

Toledo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)

63%

Toledo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Toledo attack 1.01 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manchego scores more

44%

level

30%

Toledo scores more

26%

Manchego at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff