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Manchego vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Manchego48%
×Draw28%
Calvo Sotelo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
1.33
Calvo Sotelo
0.84

Manchego creates 58% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 93 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
76%
Manchego or Calvo Sotelo
72%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
52%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
23%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
74%
Manchego 2+ goals
38%
Manchego 3+ goals
15%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
57%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
21%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
67%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Manchego scores more
48%
level
28%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
24%

Manchego at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchego vs Calvo Sotelo

Manchego and Calvo Sotelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.