Managua 0–3 Real Estelí: Result & Stats

Managua

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Estelí

11/9/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Managua40%

×Draw24%

Real Estelí35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManaguaExpected goals in this matchReal Estelí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.42

Managua

1.54

Real Estelí

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 150 away

2.04

creates per match

1.67

1.17

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Managua

2.04

Real Estelí

1.67

allows per match

Managua

1.17

Real Estelí

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Managua+0.00on par

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Managua ↓

Real Estelí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Managua or draw

65%

Managua or Real Estelí

76%

Draw or Real Estelí

60%

Winning margin

Managua wins by 2+

20%

Real Estelí wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Managua 1+ goals

79%

Managua 2+ goals

45%

Managua 3+ goals

20%

Real Estelí 1+ goals

76%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

41%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Managua (draw refunded)

53%

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Managua at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 147 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Managua attack 2.04 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Managua scores more

40%

level

24%

Real Estelí scores more

35%

Managua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff