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Managua vs Matagalpa — Primera Division 2026

Managua
Managua
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Matagalpa
Matagalpa
11/12/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 17Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Managua54%
×Draw23%
Matagalpa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Managua
1.86
Matagalpa
1.16

Managua creates 60% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 78 away

creates per match

Managua
2.04
Matagalpa
1.15

allows per match

Managua
1.17
Matagalpa
1.68

finishing

Managua+0.00on par
Matagalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Managua ↓

Matagalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Managua or draw
76%
Managua or Matagalpa
77%
Draw or Matagalpa
46%

Winning margin

Managua wins by 2+
30%
Matagalpa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Managua 1+ goals
84%
Managua 2+ goals
55%
Managua 3+ goals
28%
Matagalpa 1+ goals
69%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
32%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Managua (draw refunded)
69%
Matagalpa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Managua at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 147 matches

Matagalpa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Managua attack 2.04 + Matagalpa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.86

Matagalpa attack 1.15 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Managua scores more
54%
level
23%
Matagalpa scores more
24%

Managua at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Managua vs Matagalpa

Managua beat Matagalpa 3-2 in Primera Division on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.